A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
