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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still